Factors That Shaped 2026 Osun Guber Election, The Post-mortem, Avoidable Strategic Missteps

Gubernatorial election was held in Osun State on Saturday, August 15, 2026, and the ruling Accord Party has retained the control of the state.

Governor Ademola Adeleke, who was the Accord Party candidate, has won the gubernatorial election and he has done this for the second time in four years.

The Asiwaju of Ede, Governor Adeleke was the guber candidate of PDP in 2022 and he had stopped the then Governor Gboyega Oyetola from winning re-election.

With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announcing Governor Ademola Adeleke as winner of the gubernatorial election held on Saturday, he has gotten his mandate renewed and will retain his position until November 26, 2030.

Announcing the election results on Sunday, the Returning Officer, Professor Joshua Ogunwole, who is the Vice-Chancellor of the Federal University, Oye Ekiti, noted that Governor Adeleke had 511,067 votes while his main challenger, Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji of the APC got 444,815 votes.

Team@orientactualmags.com carried out an assessment of the guber election held in 3,763 polling stations in the State of the Living Spring on Saturday and here presents major factors that shaped the election in question and helped to push the Accord Party candidate over the top.

The post-mortem analysis showed that the ruling party at the federal level suffered a major electoral defeat on Saturday as a result of avoidable strategic missteps, we also looked into factors that influenced ‘voter behaviour’ and shaped the 2026 guber election

Haunting Past That Followed The ‘Progressives’ APC

APC is seen and considered as a party that represents the ‘progressives’.

Since the creation of Osun State on August 27, 1991, the progressives in the state have at different times gotten recognized as members of the SDP, AD, ACN and they are currently in APC.

Late Alhaji Isiaka Adeleke was the governor of the state between January 1992 and November 1993 and it was not an enough time to assess the relationship of his administration with the organized labour it was however ‘a poor relationship’ under Chief Bisi Akande, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and Mr Gboyega Oyetola who were members of AD, AC and APC respectively..

Chef Bisi Akande, who was the governor of the state from 1999 to 2003, sacked close to 6,000 civil servants, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola introduced ‘half salary’ while Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola failed to clear the salary arrears.

The civil servants have only had it good under PDP/Accord administrations in the state.

Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, who was the first PDP governor, reabsorbed the workers sacked by Chief Bisi Akande immediately he took over leadership of the state in 2003 while Asiwaju Ademola Adeleke , the second PDP governor not only cleared all the salary arrears but also made ‘goodies’ available to the workers without prompting.

Civil servants in the state dread having an APC government or anything attached to the ‘progressives’ and nothing can obliterate the memory of the bitter experiences they went through under Akande and Aregbesola.

Although they may not be huge in population, they can however influence people and determine the outcome of an election cognizant that the state is not industrious enough to ignore the poor treatment of the civil servants.

They move from one junction to another lamenting their poor treatment while they also concoct lies to either ‘market’ or ‘demarket’ an administration.

The civil servants played a major role in the historic defeat of the APC in the Saturday’s election.

The union leaders told their members that there may be a return to the ‘half salary’ era if APC wins the guber election and a human being will naturally become worried once it has to do with matters that centre on ‘source of livelihood’ .

The civil servants made themselves voluntary canvassers and mobilized for the Accord Party.

The civil servants also joined others in taking election results to collation centers to avoid alteration of the results.

That was not all, they also sent bus fares to their children and relatives to encourage them to visit home and vote.

The civil servants called it a life-saving trip and people easily became sympathetic to their cause.

Asiwaju ola Oyebamiji’s failure to define a distinct political identity and his inability to articulate clear departures from the administrations that the organized labour does not want to come back affected him negatively.

He also failed to explain reasons for ‘half salary’ and make a promise to take good care of civil servants in the state.

Intra Party Conflict In APC

The intra party conflict in Osun State APC and the rumbling of annoyance in the party after its primary elections also contributed to the electoral defeat.

Recall that ahead of Osun State APC  gubernatorial primary that was held on December 13, 2025, the Screening Committee headed by Chief Obinna Uzoh had submitted that Otunba Iyiola Omisore, Mr Babatunde Hareter Oralusi, Oyedotun Babayemi, Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi, Benedict Alabi, Adegoke Rasheed Okiki, and former senator Babajide Omoworare did not submit proof of sponsorship from at least five fully registered and financially current party members from each Local Government in the state, as stipulated by Articles 9.3(i) and 31.2(ii) of the APC Constitution and Paragraph 6(c) of the party guidelines and therefore declared them ‘disqualified’.

Only Mulikat Abiola Jimoh and Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji were left to compete and seek gubernatorial nomination and the latter eventually emerged as the party’s guber candidate.

Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji’s former co-contestants felt aggrieved and only Dr Ogunbiyi and Adegoke Rasheed, who got party nominations, later showed commitment to Oyebamiji’s governorship candidacy while others simply showed indifference.

The ‘Ife lokan’ campaign was also amplified, and foot soldiers of Otunba Iyiola Omisore took turns to leave APC for the Accord Party.

President Bola Tinubu has a fair share of the blame because he failed to ensure that party bigwigs truly showed commitment to Oyebamiji’s governorship candidacy by ensuring that the aggrieved people get pacified.

‘If the president had met with Omisore to pacify him, he would have asked his loyalists to return to APC and he would have coordinated things for the party personally in Ile-Ife but they thought the Deputy Governorship candidate, Kayode Adereti could ‘deliver’ but he only managed to win his polling station.

Most of the party bigwigs, who had complaints and feelings that had been bottled up for like two years now will begin to release them after the electoral defeat.

Chief Bisi Akande wanted Olubiyi Fadeyi-Ajagunla to get nominated for senate but they did not allow that, he was not also initially in support of Oyebamiji’s candidacy’ said a source.

Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola’s Dominant Personality

Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola’s dominant personality has deeply fractured the state APC.

Many also believed that being a technocrat, an introvert and a reserved person, who values his quiet and personal space over social outgoingness, making himself the state APC leader has been a disadvantage to the party.

‘A political leader is expected to be actively involved in the organization, strategy, and activities of a political party. He or she is also expected to provide resources and engage with people to increase their participation in political activities.

The leader of a political party must be available, accessible, and conciliating to build trust, stay responsive to party members’ needs, and resolve conflicts peacefully.

.The APC guber candidate, Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji also inherited Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola’s political enemies’ a party member submitted..

Over-reliance On The ‘Federal Might’

A major mistake that made Osun State APC lose the winnable 2026 governorship race was its over-reliance on the famed ‘federal might’.

Leaders of the party focused heavily on using ‘federal might’ and they sold this idea to the members and supporters while the party failed to commit energy, resources and time to broadening the appeal for votes.

Just like Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola did in 2014, Governor Ademola Adeleke has also reset expectations in respect of ‘federal might’.

He has won re-election despite not being a member of any of the four major political parties in the country; APC, ADC, NDC and PDP.

Religion

Religion played a minor but not negligible role in the outcome of the 2026 guber election.  

Inauguration Of Projects

The decision of the Adeleke administration to inaugurate projects a few weeks to the guber election helped greatly to sell his candidacy to the people and get presented as a performing governor.

Despite the reflective cracks on the LAMECO Flyover, Osogbo a few days after its inauguration, the Adeleke administration effectively managed the situation and the governor’s approval rating was not negatively impacted.

The inaugurated projects are located in major cities in the state and those who have come home to vote had it easy getting convinced to support Adeleke’s candidacy.

Vote Buying

The 2026 Osun State guber election was a two-party race between the Accord Party and APC and the two of them engaged in vote buying.

It is an indisputable fact that APC and Accord Party have the most money, voters, and power and the two parties began to distribute money to the electors before the election.

APC had made N15,000 available to each of the electors while that of Accord Party was N10, 000.

However, on the Election Day, APC had a field day making cash available to the electors while Accord Party could only transfer money or promise to make it available after the election.

Political pundits submitted that if vote buying had been disallowed, APC would have gotten lower votes than what it eventually got.

How Gov Adeleke Won People’s Hearts Because He’s A Bubbly Person

While some people had mimicked Governor Ademola Adeleke’s dance moves and mocked him for dancing in public, our findings showed that being a bubbly person has actually drawn people to him especially the young people.

Our reporters asked some young people in the state why they supported his candidacy and a good number of them cited his being a bubbly person.

Abdulazeez Abdulfatahi, an indigene of  Iresi, who lives in Osogbo, also confirmed this but however added that the developmental strides made by the governor also made young people in the state support his re-election bid.

 David Adeleke’s Unquantifiable Support For His Uncle

Mr David Adeleke, who is popularly called Davido, gave his uncle, Governor Ademola Adeleke ‘unquantifiable support’ ahead of the election.

His being on the campaign trail and being ever ready to defend the governor on social media really helped in promoting Adeleke’s governorship candidacy.

Davido’s short phrases to counter criticism and address political controversies also helped to motivate others to continue to show courage and resilience and made the Accord Party members and supporters not to feel despondent.

He was the one who led the charge and his role is quite commendable.

Cognizant that political views often divide an audience, Davido had risked alienating fans, losing endorsements, and hurting album sales to openly support his brother’s re-election bid.

 The Air Of Overconfidence In Osun State APC

Because of the assurance of the famed ‘federal might’, there was an air of overconfidence in the state APC which was one of the factors that made the party suffer electoral defeat.

The ‘nothing bad can happen’ mood made some of the party leaders and members felt that there was no need for the support of others.

 They were too sure of their success because of the ‘federal might’ and they saw any new face that can ‘add value’ as a potential competitor who should be driven away.

Their priority was the political gains that will be available in the anticipated APC government rather than the pool of ideas that will produce the desired electoral success.

Rather than having an elderly person like the state PRO, Chief Kola Olabisi as head of the media team, the party also had young chaps who failed to control emotions, manage excitement and pride before achieving the desired goal.

In February this year, a journalist of close to three decades’ experience left a North Central state for Osogbo to attend an event held by APC because he had gotten invited weeks before the party leaders decided the event date.

The person, who invited him did not however attend the event and he explained this to a member of the media team who promised to make something available to defray expenses.

He met the person in question at Ileri Oluwa campaign office three days later and raised the issue again and he for the second time promised to take action on it.

When nothing was forthcoming after six days, the distraught journalist sent a voice note to the member of the media committee in question, who is supposed to be his friend, and this made the almighty ‘media guy’ to simply end relationship with the journalist in question for daring to ask him to do the right thing.

That was not all, the person who had invited the journalist to the event, also ended his relationship with him.

 Such was the level of arrogance and the ‘we can do away with anyone’ mood in the party before the election, they were only waiting to take over because there was the ‘federal might’ that will make public support ‘unshakeable’.

The almighty ‘media guys’ never made anything available to the journalist in question to take care of the money spent on fuel and hotel accommodation or event acknowledge the story links he had sent to them.

Rep Bamidele Salam Proves His Worth

Rep Bamidele Salam was one of the Accord Party bigwigs who helped to propel Governor Adeleke to victory.

The federal lawmaker, who represents Ede North/Ede South/Egbedore/Ejigbo federal constituency in the House of Representatives, had apparently because of the famed ‘federal might’ ensured that importance was attached to playing the sympathy card.

The media committee he headed ensured that they controlled the narratives, shaped public opinion and presented the governor as someone who was being persecuted, facing severe mistreatment and cruelty and should therefore be saved.

They succeeded in making the people of the state see the APC as a party that promoted political violence and killings, and as a party that is not popular but however wanted to force those who will ‘punish’ the people on the citizens.

Governor Adeleke was also positioned as a defender of masses and APC as an oppressor and this forged a remarkable resilience, and communal strength and determination..

While there was an air of confidence in the state APC, the media team of The Imole Campaign Council devoted attention to having Accord Party and Governor Adeleke viewed favorably by the general public.

The freezing of Osun State government’s account in the First Bank, the arrest of Accord Party bigwigs only helped in making Governor Adeleke earn the sympathy of the people.

The Divided Presidency

Governor Ademola Adeleke is really a lucky person. The only time he was believed to have won the guber election but got denied the opportunity to ‘activate’ the mandate was in 2018 when the presidency presented a common front.

In 2022, the then Vice President, Professor Yemi Osibajo and Minister of Interior were among top government functionaries at the federal level that worked against their party , APC in the gubernatorial election held in the year in question.

It was also believed that in the guber election held on Saturday, Governor Adeleke had the support of President Bola Tinubu’s son, Mr Seyi Tinubu, and two other principal stakeholders in the presidency.

They were said to have stood against anyone who attempted to suggest electoral fraud and insisted on creating an enabling environment for a free and fair election.

Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola

Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, a one-time Minister of Interior, served as governor of Osun State between 2010 and 2018, he is a politician with a deeply devoted and fanatical following and he has supporters in all the nooks and crannies of the state.

He played an unascertainable role in the election.

While many political pundits have mocked him and claimed that the poor outing of the ADC guber candidate, Hon Najeem Salam in the Saturday’s guber poll showed that he is no longer relevant politically, it has become clear that his supporters backed Governor Ademola Adeleke’s candidacy.

Although nothing was made public about the ‘relationship’ between ADC and the Accord Party, Aregbesola’s supporters through their actions and inactions made many believe that they agreed to work together.

The party did not mobilize agents for the election while the former minister’s social media foot soldiers were also the first to celebrate and make the final guber election results available on social media.

-Team@orientactualmags.com  Do you have any information you wish to share with us? Do you want us to cover your event or programme? Kindly send SMS to 08035023079,  08059100286, 09094171980 or get in touch via orientactualmag@gmail.com.  Thank you